News Africa Extended

News Africa Extended

Bob's your uncle, and soon he may be gone

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 05:26 AM PDT

The overdue end of the Mugabe era is the message spewing out of Harare after 10 days of social unrest.

|||

Robert Mugabe’s final humiliation is at hand.

He can't get out of the latest mess he created because at the end of the day it comes down to the money, and he doesn't have enough to save himself or the country.

Even his avaricious wife, Grace, arguably the most disliked person in much of Zimbabwe, has been cooled down in the last months and no longer plays much of a political role.

The overdue end of the Mugabe era is the message spewing out of Harare after 10 days of social unrest, including a stayaway, strike, and some violence against the state by people on the street who say they are too desperate to be frightened any longer.

“They have so little, they have nothing to lose” is the message on the streets. “Why should I care? I have nothing” said a vendor of cellular recharge cards in a small shopping centre south of the city.

This week, Mugabe’s Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa was in London, cap in hand, addressing a conference, looking for money. Assuring any investor who would listen that Mugabe’s controversial and investor unfriendly “indigenisation” policy no longer counts and insisting Zimbabwe has changed and it would also massively revamp its land policies to pay out evicted white farmers. “The past is over, let’s look to the future,” Chinamasa said.

A few days earlier in an interview about Zimbabwe's financial situation with French radio, Chinamasa said: “Right now, we literally have nothing.”

The UK Economist, which covered the Tuesday conference in London, said Chinamasa was hoping to finalise a deal to borrow about R15 billion to pay off its debts to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the African Development Bank, so that it can borrow again and restart the economy.

But analysts say Mugabe doesn't have time for any of this to be put in place as the treasury cannot pay most of its public servants on time next week, again, and many companies cannot pay South African suppliers for equipment or stocks of materials they need.

The final nail in Mugabe’s coffin, many analysts say, is that a small cellular phone campaign of SMSes brought the country to a halt on Wednesday. Zanu-PF doesn't know how to stop the social media as most of Zimbabwe’s adult population has a cellphone.

Brian Raftopoulos, the country's most prominent political analyst and senior academic, said: “Yes, finally this seems to be the end of the road for Mugabe, and I can’t see him standing for re-election in 2018. He will be gone before then. People on the streets and groups are telling me, and I can see with my own eyes, that there is almost no respect left for Mugabe, and a lot less fear of him as well.”

Raftopoulos said he expects the security sector to try to crack down on those involved in the social media campaign which shut Zimbabwe down on Wednesday but doubts this will stop the resistance. “It will be hard for Zanu-PF to locate all the sources.”

Independent Foreign Service

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

SA advises Zim to adopt the rand

Posted: 09 Jul 2016 01:58 AM PDT

South Africa is holding quiet talks with Zimbabwe to try to persuade it to adopt the rand as its official currency.

|||

Johannesburg – South Africa is holding quiet talks with Zimbabwe to try to persuade it to adopt the rand as its official currency, as the only way out of its growing economic and political crisis.

The crisis has been sparked by Zimbabwe’s dire shortages of US dollars which it chose as its chief currency after its own Zimbabwean dollar collapsed seven years ago amid runaway inflation.

Saving scarce US dollars appears to have been the real motive for Zimbabwe’s decision to ban imports of several products from South Africa two weeks ago. That sparked violence at the Beitbridge border post as Zimbabwe’s growing army of informal importers lost their business.

The lack of dollars also provoked a national stayaway and unrest in Zimbabwe this week as the government was unable to pay civil servants. Official sources said both Zimbabwe’s reserve bank governor John Mangudya and Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa have recently made clear that joining the common monetary area (CMA) is the only solution to Zimbabwe’s mounting economic problems.

“All that is required now is a political decision at the highest level,” one said. They acknowledged this could be difficult because of national pride. The general feeling is that President Robert Mugabe has so far resisted a switch to the rand as this would effectively cede Zimbabwe’s financial authority to South Africa. But he may be running out of options as the dire economic crisis is triggering a political upheaval which might threaten his hold on power.

The common monetary area links Namibia, Lesotho, and Swaziland to the rand in a de facto monetary union. Though their currencies have different names, they are all pegged to the rand and so essentially fall under the SA Reserve Bank’s monetary policy direction.

This has helped maintain financial and therefore also economic stability in these small countries – but at the expense of considerable financial autonomy. Officials said South Africa offered Zimbabwe membership of the CMA when the Zimbabwe dollar collapsed in 2009 but Zimbabwe chose instead to use several currencies, including the US dollar, the rand, and the Botswana pula.

However, ordinary Zimbabweans increasingly resorted to the stronger dollar because of the fall in the value of the rand. Official sources said that policy had now been demonstrated to have failed. And Zimbabwe could not print its own money again as this would have no credibility now with ordinary Zimbabweans.

They said switching to the rand would boost Zimbabwe’s exports as the US dollar made its exports too expensive on international markets. This could revive Zimbabwe’s flagging manufacturing sector. The sources said that if Zimbabwe switched to the rand, Pretoria would encourage its state-owned enterprises already in the country, such as the Development Bank of Southern Africa, the Industrial Development Corporation, and the Public Investment Corporation, to inject more money into the Zimbabwean economy.

This would be easier for them to do in rands than in US dollars.

Pretoria believes the current unrest in Zimbabwe is not yet presenting a threat to the survival of the Mugabe regime. But they acknowledged that for the first time the Zimbabwean people are standing up to their government en masse. Many Zimbabweans have told journalists they have at last found the courage to do so because they are desperate and have nothing left to lose.

But, South African officials insist they are not trying to prop up the Mugabe and Zanu-PF regime.

“It is in South Africa’s strategic interests to help Zimbabwe to recover economically so it can contribute to the economic integration of the Southern African region,” one said.

African News Agency

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now